Thursday, June 19, 2008

Rosa Update

Former Naturals ace Carlos Rosa has now made his first major league appearance (actually 5 days ago, but who's counting?) in the Major Leagues. On June 14 he pitched a perfect inning of relief, allowing no base-runners and striking out one.

Rosa became the first former Natural regular to appear in a major league game. Another former Nat, Jeff Fulchino, is also on the 25 man big league roster. Many Nats fans, though, probably don't remember Fulchino as he only appeared in two games with NWA during the opening road trip in Texas. Nonetheless, Fulchino is technically the first former Natural to appear in a major league game (he's pitched in 4 games so far for KC) on June 8. Aside from one rough outing (he allowed two earned runs without recording an out), Fulchino has pitched well for the Royals.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Playoffs!?

I wondered this at the beginning of the season, and it's pretty tough to find good sources onMiLB stuff. This includes the Texas League, so it was hard to figure out how the playoff structure in the league works, but now that the North and (for some time) the South have their first half winners it's probably a good time for a quick post on the topic.

The season is divided into two halves, each with 70 games. The team from each division with the best record in each half (so, 4 teams North 1st half, North 2nd half, South 1st half, and South 2nd half) advance to the playoffs.

In the event, like this year in the North, there is a tie for the best record (Springfield and Arkansas both finished the first half 36-34), the team with the best record in the division is declared the winner. Presumably there are other tie-breakers (probably head-to-head would be next) if the teams have identicle records in the division.

This next part I've gleaned, but I'm sure I'll be corrected in various places if I'm wrong. If the same team wins both halves (say, Frisco wins the second half of the South - obviously Arkansas isn't going to win the 2nd half) a wildcard team is selected. I don't know if the wildcard is the team that finishes second in the second half or the team with the second best record overall (obviously the team that wins both halves will have the best record, though I suppose it's possible two teams could finish with identical records for each half, with one team winning the tie-breaker both times).

Perhaps someone who knows how the wildcard is chosen can chime in on how the wildcard is determined.

Update - Anonymous tells us that the wildcard would be the team with the best full-season record among the teams that did not win both halves.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Beers of the World!

One has to wonder if this was the plan from the beginning, or if the staff at the 'Vest is listening to our thirsty cries for beer variety. Regardless of their reasons, they have done something wonderful - Beers of the World. No longer will thirsty fans have to settle for the drab offerings initially put up by the Naturals' staff. Now, though it isn't Boulevard on tap like I had hoped for, we at least have variety.

1. Diamond Bear Pale Ale - An OK, medium-hopped brew from Little Rock. Not as good as many other micro-brews, but the best (read "only") beer currently bottled in Arkansas. Their Southern Blonde is probably a better beer, though none of them are anything to get excited about. 5/10

2. Sam Adams Summer - This year the Sam Adams Summer beer is a Whie Ale. These seem to be gaining in popularity, as the wheat craze dies out. I personally prefer the black ales, but this one is a nice, light, full-bodied ale with some interesting summer notes. Definitely worth having a go if you've never tried it before. 7/10

3. Anglers Pale Ale - Haven't had this yet. Expect hops.

4. Leinenkugel Sunset Wheat - "Made by 73 people in Wisconsin who care" about making beer that tastes like Fruity Pebbles. 2/10

5. Moosehead - This one really surprised me. I love this tasty, refreshing lager, but I didn't expect that they'd expect people to pay $5 for a bottle. 6/10

6. Labatt Blue - Remeber a few years ago when there were constant commercials for this beer with the bear? What happened to that? If they're using the bottles you find in the store, they're only 11.5 ounces (really). 5/10

7. Dos Equis Amber - My personal favorite Mexican beer. It's got a nice amber color and a good caramelized flavor. Expect these to sell well. 7/10

8. Guiness - Comment unnecessary. 7/10

9. Peroni - Another I haven't had.

10. Fosters - Nah. 3/10

11. Corona - Probably the most over-rated and over-priced beer on the market today (except that new Landshark - what a ripoff). Its ongoing popularity (outside Cinco de Mayo celebrations) boggles the mind. 2/10

12. Modelo Especial - Tasty brew. Worth giving a shot if you're looking to change things up. 5/10

13. Sam Adams - This one has grown on me. As hops have begun to dominate the microbrew industry, and people seek to make beer with more and more hops, it's hard to avoid giving a nod to the label that started it all. 6/10

All-in-all it's not a terrible effort. I would have appreciated more American micro-brews (New Belgium, Boulevard, Summit come to mind). It would also be interesting to see them bring up kegs of Hog Haus beers to celebrate the truly local flavor. Their beers are far superior to the Diamond Bear that comes out of LR.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

40 man MLB Update

OK - So I was only part right about the whole 40 man roster thing, and people are making me really sad by making fun of me over on Travelerocity. Funny how when you respond to sarcasm with sarcasm it gets lost. I'll admit that I totally missed the rest of the story on the 40 man roster bit. Like I've said from the beginning, though, it's a learning experience. It appears there's also something about waivers, but if I try to explain someone will probably make fun of me and hurt my feelings again.


I'd also like to apologize for taking so long between posts and updates. I've had a crazy couple weeks and things are only going to get more hectic in the weeks to come.

Anyway, I missed Poldberg bobblehead night - which also makes me sad. I was looking forward to sitting the mustachioed bobble on the shelf beside the John Mayberry bobblehead I got at the Royals game a couple weeks ago.

The Nats have been stagnant of late, and it appears that their red hot May has fizzled with the onset of June. Summer hasn't even started yet, so let's hope they aren't done. They've fallen out of first place for the first time in weeks, and will need to find a way to string together a couple wins in order to finish the first half on top.

Expect future postings to be slow in coming. I'm still sad about those meanies making fun of me.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Cortes' Return Home Start

Wednesday night, Arvest Ballpark was treated to the home return of Daniel Cortes. The start, Cortes' second since returning from the DL last week, was again solid. He got the win, going 5 innings, giving up 3 hits and allowing only one run while striking out five. He walked a few too many (4), but you'd have to expect his control to improve as he gets back into the groove. His season ERA now stands at an excellent 1.96.

Alumni Watch
Carlos Rosa made another start in AAA Omaha yesterday, and he must have been much sharper than he was in his debut. Rosa went seven complete, scattering seven hits, and allowing three runs. He only struck out 2, but one would have to expect the strikeouts to come with time.

Roman Colon then finished the game, going two innings for the save, allowing only one hit.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Richardson's Streak

I almost forgot to post about this. As a few people probably noticed based on the streak-tracker I had posted on the blog, Juan Richardson just had his 10 game hitting streak snapped when he went 0 for 3 on May 17. I thought I'd take a minute to look at what Richardson's numbers did during the streak, as he was impressive but not great.


During the streak Richardson hit .410 (16 for 39), raising his season average from .243 to .290 (22nd in the Texas League). That's good, but not great (for a streak of this length), afterall, Shane Robinson leads the Texas League in hitting with a .410 average for the whole season. Also, Richardson scored only 8 runs, drove in only 5 RBI and hit only one bomb during the streak.

He was hot, but not as hot as you might expect for a streak of that length. Afterall, in 6 of the 10 games in the streak, Richardson managed only a single hit.

Clark Gone - Travs Series

Clark Promoted
After struggling early, local favorite Cody Clark started wielding a hot bat just recently. Probably on the strength of his recently improved hitting, his always solid defense, and his experience, Clark was called up to replace Matt Tupman, who was promoted to the MLB team in John Buck's absence. It's likely that the call-up will be temporary, but Clark is making the most of the opportunity. In his first game with the O-Royals he went 2/3 with a triple and a home run. Maybe we won't see Cody Clark in NWA anymore this season.

Travs Series
It appears that the Naturals of the first 18 games of the season reappeared for the third installment of the Diamond Series. The Naturals were able to scratch out a single win during the 4 game set, the first road victory for either team so far in the season series (home team is now 11-1 in the series).

The Nats displayed statistics eerily similar to those we saw during the first 18 games of the season. They didn't hit for power (4 2b and 1 hr in 4 games), they struck out (26 K's), they didn't walk (10 BB). During the 4 games, they scored only 8 runs - not pretty.

Alumni Update
While Clark had a solid season debut with Omaha, the same cannot be said for Carlos Rosa. After being unhittable in AA, Rosa struggled in his first outing with the O-Royals. He went only 3 innings, allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs. He did manage to strike out 4 and issued 0 walks, so there are a few good things to take away from the poor outing.

Devon Lowery has continued to impress in Omaha, though. He's thrown 12 1/3 innings in 6 appearances, posting a .73 ERA (he's still only allowed one run). and a .97 WHIP.

Like Rosa, Roman Colon hasn't had a good go of things in Omaha so far. He's allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work.

The Nats return
The Nats will be back in Arvest Ballpark Wednesday to begin a 6-game non-divisional homestand against Midland and Frisco. Wednesday will be Daniel Cortes' first home start since he went on the DL weeks ago, so Wednesday's game will be worth catching to see him go. He had a solid outing in his return against Tulsa, and will look to improve tomorrow.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Sometimes It Rains.

The Naturals have been a model of the classic turnaround so far this season. After starting off a dismal 5-13, the Nats had their April 23rd game against the Springfield Cardinals rained out. After the rainout, the Naturals have surged to a 21-18 record, going 16-5 over their last 21 games. Not impressed? Let's look a little deeper.

5-13 works out to a .277 winning percentage.
16-5 works out to a .762 winning percentage.

That's pretty astounding. Sure, teams lose and win, but to sustain 18 games losing like they were, then to sustain a .762 winning percentage for 21 games? That's remarkable, especially at a level where moves are done throughout the course of games with intentions other than to win the games.

What caused the dramatic turnaround? Over the first 18 games, the Nats scored a dreadful 54 runs (3/game). During the surge, though, they've scored 106 runs in 21 games (a respectable 5+/contest). Meanwhile, they're pitching has remained solid, allowing 4.11 games during the first 18, and dropping that to 3.76/game in the last 21.

So the offense has spurred the turnaround. Afterall, there was never anything wrong with the pitching - 4R/Gm is not bad. Has the offense been improved by more timely hitting? Yes, but it's also much simpler than that. Naturals hitters have been locked in since the rainout. I did the math.

Before the rainout (first 18 games) - .204
After the rainout (next 21 games) - .285

They've raised the team batting average 81 points. But that's not the only thing that's changed. Before the rainout, the Naturals were slugging a dismal .287 (note that the team batting average since 4/23 is .285). They were averaging 3 rbi/gm on the strength of 1 double/gm and .55hr/gm. I realize some of these aren't familiar stats, but use them for comparison.

Since the rainout, the Nats have slugged a robust .433 (.146 higher). They've driven in 4.48rbi/gm (nearly 1 1/2 more rbi/gm) on the strength of 1.4 doubles/gm and 1hr/gm. Basically, before the rain they were hitting one home run every other game. Since the rain they've been hitting bombs daily.

They've also improved their plate discipline. Before the rainout turnaround, the Nats were striking out 6.9 times per game and walking only 3.05 times per game. That's 2.25k/bb before the rainout - pretty terrible. Since the rainout they've cut the strikouts to 5.5/game and upped the walks to 4/gm - 1.38k/bb since the rainout.

It looks like this improved plate discipline has really made a big difference. The team batting average on balls in play has been 83 points higher after the rainout (.343) than it was prior to the rainout (.247).

So, they're just hitting better - they're putting more balls in play, getting more hits, more walks, fewer strikeouts, more extra base hits, and more timely hits, which is leading to more runs.

I'm reminded of a wise saying, though - "nothing very good or very bad lasts very long."

Monday, May 12, 2008

Rosa Promoted to AAA Omaha

The pitching drain continues here in NWA. Carlos Rosa, the Naturals ace, and Texas League ERA leader has been promoted to the Omaha Royals, a step away from the majors. Rosa is the third Natural pitcher to be promoted since May 1st, and it looks like the Royals pitching-stacked system might be ready to pay off for the big club.

Rosa, a 23-year-old Dominican was stellar in his starts for the Naturals. His exploits have been detailed on this blog already (hey, I was starting to develop a bit of a man-crush, I'll admit it) but let's take one more moment to look at his stats here, since we won't be seeing him anymore.

In 8 starts Rosa threw 45 innings (Nearly 5 2/3 ip per start). In those 45 innings he allowed a trifling 30 hits and 7 walks, for a WHIP of .82 and posted the aforementioned 1.20 ERA (allowed 6 ER). For my money, though, his k/bb ratio is his telling stat. 42/7 - insane. 6 strikeouts for every walk issued. I think he's going to be the real deal - time will tell.

As yet a replacement hasn't been announced - The Naturals' roster is down to 22, 2 below the maximum of 24, so we should see a player or two added sometime. There are several on the DL, though, so those guys might fill the roster spots.

40 Man MLB?

If you've looked at the Naturals' roster you've probably noticed that 4 players - Rosa, Pimentel, Sanchez, and Lisson are on the Royals 40-man roster. Many probably don't know what that means, though.

Most people who follow baseball are familiar with the 25 man roster for each MLB team. Only players on the 25 man roster are eligible to play in official MLB games throughout the season. What is the 40 man roster, though? It includes the 25 man roster up to 15 players in the minor leagues - but typically something less than that - and MLB players who are on the 15-day DL. The significance of a player being on the 40 man roster is that, after September 1 the MLB club can expand their roster to include players on the 40 man roster to play in official MLB games.

This means that players like Rosa and Pimentel will likely get a chance to move up to play in a few MLB games this season after the roster expansion in September (if not sooner, in Rosa's case). Typically teams that fall out of centention are much more likely to expand their rosters to 40 and let prospects get time in the big leagues. Teams in contention might add a few guys to lessen the wear on everyday players, but don't typically give minor leaguers significant playing time.

This is because teams must still maintain their 25 man roster, and cannot change that roster after Aug 31, unless a player is placed on the 60-day DL. In that event, a player from the 40 man roster, who plays the same position, can replace the injured player (who is out for the remainder of the season since 60 days after Sept. 1 is Oct. 31 and the World Series is over).

It might be fun to look at the players who are on the Royals 40 man roster, but not on their 25 man roster. Of course, it might not be fun. We'll only know once we've done it.

John Bale - 15 day DL
Ryan Braun - RHP - Omaha Royals
Kyle Davies - RHP - Omaha Royals
Luke Hudson - 15 day DL
Tyler Lumsden - LHP - Omaha Royals
Neal Musser - LHP - Omaha Royals
Julio Pimentel - RHP - NWA Naturals
Carlos Rosa - RHP - NWA Naturals
Matt Tupman - C - Omaha Royals
Mario Lisson - 3B - NWA Naturals
Angel Sanchez - SS - NWA NAturals
Ryan Shealy - 1B - Omaha Royals
Shane Costa - OF - Omaha Royals
Mitch Maier - OF - Omaha Royals

It'll be fun if/when some of these Nats get their chance in the big leagues. I'm hoping to make a few trips up to KC to catch some games this summer, and will definitely try to do so if Rosa or Pimentel get a chance to start for the big club.

Now a look at the Royals Top Ten Prospects according to Baseball America:

Mike Moustakas - SS - Burlington Bees
Daniel Cortes - RHP - NWA Naturals (DL)
Luke Hochevar - RHP - MLB 25 Man Roster
Blake Wood - RHP - Wilmington Blue Rocks
Danny Duffy - LHP - AZL Royals
Carlos Rosa - RHP - NWA Naturals
Julio Pimentel - RHP - NWA Naturals
Matt Mitchell - RHP - Burlington Bees
Yasuhiko Yabuta - RHP - MLB 25 Man Roster
Derrick Robinson - OF - Wilmington Blue Rocks

I don't know the protocol on when a player is no longer a prospect, but I suppose one should remove Yabuta to Hochevar from the list soon, if not now. If Moustakas lives up to his potential there's a clear opening for him in KC, as Pena is not getting it done (.160 BA right now). That could mean a midseason call-up for Moustakas, which would probably send Angel Sanchez to Omaha.

Update:
I meant to include this initially, but ran out of time. It's interesting to see how few of the top prospects are also on the 40 man roster. You can tell from this that there is a huge difference in the long-term potential for a player (at least for what scouts see in a player) and their current abilities. Guys on the 40 man roster are probably the guys the club feels are the most MLB ready right now, while prospects are the guys who are thought to have the greatest potential to have the largest impact someday. Heck, Moustakas isn't even on the 40-man roster, and he's (by all accounts) the top prospect in the KC system.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Another Promotion to Omaha

Colon Promotion
Roman Colon is the second Natural pitcher in as many weeks to be promoted to Omaha. Colon pitched fairly well while with the Naturals - 2-0/5.29, but he wasn't spectacular. One of the few Nats with MLB experience (he's played for Atlanta and Detroit), Colon might be headed up to the big leagues soon. Obviously, he would be the first former Natural to play in the big leagues.

Alumnus Prospect Watch
Former Nat Devon Lowery, promoted to AAA Omaha last week, is still dominating hitters. In three appearanced, Lowery has pitched 6 1/3 innings, and has allowed two hits while striking out 3, walking nobody and allowing zero earned runs.

It'll be nice to see one of these guys get a shot at the big club. Hard to tell whether the Royals will move either one of them up, but with a team that's struggling as much as the Royals do perennially, there's always room for effective pitchers.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

First Place

I wanted to go ahead and get this posted while it's still true. As of 2:40 today, the Naturals are alone in first place in the North Division. With their come-from-behind victory on the strength of home runs from Kaaihue, McFall, and local favorite Cody Clark the Nats topped the Drillers to complete another series sweep, their second consecutive sweep at the 'Vest.

This is the Naturals 8th consecutive home win and their 12th win in their last 16 games. It also marks the first time since opening day that the Naturals don't have a losing record. With a win tomorrow against Springfield, the Nats will be above .500 for the first time in franchise history.

The Naturals and the Cardinals have faced each other in two 4-game series so far this season, splitting each series 2-2. The sticks to keep an eye on for the Cards will be in the hands of OF Jon Jay (I realize there was also a John Jay who was the first Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. All indications are that this is not the same guy) and 3B Allen Craig. Craig has 4 bombs and has driven in 23 for the Cardinals, while Jay is hitting a respectable .330.

Former Arkansas Razorback Casey Rowlett should also see more action at the 'Vest this weekend. Also, former Razorback pitcher Jess Todd, who set Arkansas and SEC tournament records with 17 Ks in a tourney game last season has been promoted to AA and is scheduled to start on Wednesday. Todd made his professional debut at Advanced-A Palm Beach this season, and has apparently impressed the Cards front office enough to get the call up. I remember him well from his UA days. He has electric stuff.

Given the affiliation, the Razorback connections, and the Naturals' hot streak, I hope attendance will be up for this series.

Monday, May 5, 2008

Naturals keep up the winning ways

The Naturals are again tied for first place in the North Division at 14-16 (not bad after starting 4-12). It's a little difficult to get really excited about a first place club, though that's still lost more games than they've won. That is certainly not the case lately, though. The Naturals have now won 10 of their last 14 games and are legitimately hot. They're winning with pitching, including the arms or Pimentel and Rosa. They're also winning with hitting, including the power of Richardson, Kaaihue, and McFall as well as the bats of Sanchez and Duarte.

Streak
The Naturals are on quite a streak and appear to have made themselves right at home at the 'Vest. Sunday was the 6th consecutive win at home for the Naturals and they've won 8 of their last 10 at home. They'll have to continue the streak, and the hot play in general in the absence of their most effective relief pitcher Devon Lowery.

Prospect Watch
Lowery was promoted to AAA Omaha last week. While with the Naturals Lowery struck out 17 while walking only 5 in 13 innings of work. Lowery also posted a team best 0.69 ERA. Given his success with the Naturals, it seems likely he'll survive the jump to AAA. While ERA is a poor indicator of future success (at least in my estimation), his K/BB ratio of 3.4 and the fact that he hadn't allowed a single home run indicate potential to continue dominating hitters.

Strategy Note
With two runs in and nobody out in the third inning on Saturday Juan Richardson attempted an enigmatic steal of third base. He was easily thrown out by the Tulsa catcher, and what could have been a huge inning was stopped dead in its tracks as the Naturals failed to score again.

There's an old baseball saying that you never make the first or third out at third base. This is definitely a case where one should adhere to that rule. The Nat's had an opportunity to blow the game open, but instead ran themselves out of the inning. It's hard to imagine what Poldberg or Richardson thought would be gained by the steal, but it was idiotic.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Withdrawal

After spending a good portion of the last week at the 'Vest watching the Naturals win a bunch of games, it's weird having to suddenly be stuck with recaps and radio broadcasts. For one, I find it hard to justify listening to the entire broadcast, since I get to see them so often. Being WAY out of market for my MLB franchise forces me to listen to games on XM if I want to get any live action, so I'm not really doing the radio thing for the Nats.

That being the case, I have to settle for getting recaps and box scores, which are admittedly limited. It's funny how you get used to the sounds and the comfort of the ballpark when you get in the habit of being there most days. But baseball, too, can play hard to get.

Looking over the box score for last night, I did notice that Jose Duarte managed to get a base hit to extend his hitting streak to five games, making it worth talking about. Duarte has increased his average .061 points from .156 to a nearly respectable .217. During the streak, Duarte is hitting .421 (8/19).

Rosa should make another start tonight. He's been dominant so far, and will hopefully be able to pitch the Nats back into the win column. Who's pitching for the Cardinals? DKDC (don't know, dont care).

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Sweep!

I love hearing about every Naturals first. Last week we had the first rainout, first double-header, first 7 inning game in franchise history, and won back-to-back games for the first time. This week the Naturals won their first series, then completed the franchise's first series sweep.

Are the Naturals the best baseball team on the planet? Almost certainly. Look at these batting averages. Aside from Geraldo Valentin and Juan Richardson, not a soul is hitting above .250. Two regular starters, Marc Maddox and Angel Sanchez, are hitting below .190. In fact, Maddox has more strikeouts (17) than he has hits and walks combined (15).

Mario Lisson has caught fire recently, though. After going 0-4 on April 20 he's hit .321 raising his season average from .153 to .207. Lisson has an active 5-game hitting streak, and will look to continue his (relatively) hot hitting in Springfield. During the streak he's hitting .368.

Springfield is currently in first place one game ahead of both Tulsa and the Naturals, so a win tonight would put the Naturals into a tie for first place in the North at 11-14. The Cardinals are also playing good baseball. After the series split in Springdale, the Cardinals matched the Naturals' pace by sweeping Tulsa in 4 games.

If the Naturals are going to have a chance at winning the series, they'll need Lisson, McFall, and Kaaihue to continue to improve, and they'll need solid starting performances from Rosa, Pimentel, and Hardy.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Get out the Brooms

Series Update
The Naturals, having already secured their first series victory will go for another franchise first - a series sweep. The fact that it might come from the Travelers could make it that much sweeter if the Naturals can pull it off. Add to that the fact that the Naturals will move into a tie for second place with a win tonight, and there is plenty of reason to bring your broom to the 'Vest to cheer them on.

Attendance Lagging
Attendance has been disappointing early this season (about 1,000/game less than DSP last year). Edelstein blames the weather, but there has to be more to it than the weather. The home opener was, by all accounts, a fiasco. Ridiculous lines for food and horrendous traffic didn't make the nearly 8,000 fans eager to return. Sure, the weather has been bad - temperatures were in the 40s for Friday and Saturday's games - but people will show up for a good product, regardless of the weather. In MiLB simply winning doesn't make for a good product. They've got to ensure that people have fun at the park, regardless of the outcome of the games.

Here are a few suggestions from a guy whose been to most of the games played at the 'Vest so far:
1. Rethink concessions: Right now the concessions aren't terrible, but they aren't memorable. If someone is going to pay $5 for a hamburger they want something better than what they'd get from a college cafeteria.
2. Beer Selection: Bud Light, Miller Lite, and Shiner Bock. That's it? Really? At Kauffman they've got several varieties of Boulevard brews. You'd think that part of the logic in bringing a team to NWA was to try to link fans with the nearest MLB franchise to expand the fan base. Why not tie in to some of the things offered at Kauffman to do that?
3. Infrastructure: Obviously it'll take time to beef up the infrastructure, but a show of action might go a long way. They need to make 56th two lanes, and push Watkins through to 112. It'll take time to complete, but they need to show people that it's going to happen. Otherwise, people won't come back.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

NWA Comes through

Game Notes
Behind the stellar arm of Carlos Rosa, the Naturals finally edged a win in the Car-Mart Cup series with the Travelers. After dropping all 4 games against the cross-state rival in North Little Rock last weekend, the Naturals managed to split 4 with Springfield and have now won 3 of their last 5 (hey, our expectations are pretty low).

I watched the game from the Bud Light Bullpen Cafe beyond the left-field fence at a MANA fundraising event. It's fun to get a completely different angle on the game, and to have such a spectacular view of the stadium (all-you-can-eat burgers and hot dogs were pretty sweet, too). Don't know that I'd want to be out there all the time though, as the options are to stand or sit on picnic table benches, but it's a nice change of pace.

Prospect Watch
Rosa is amazing. He worked a no-hitter into the sixth and struck out 9 in eight shut-out innings. His numbers so far this season? 25IP/1.61E.R.A./25K/5BB/.79WHIP. I'll be pretty surprised if he's here all season, so anyone who wants to see a guy on the way up should get to the 'Vest soon.

Strategy Note
Really quick one - in the bottom of the ninth with a 3-run lead and 1 out, the Naturals' Kila Kaaihue attempted to stretch a single into a double. It looked pretty clear that he wasn't going to make it, though the play was relatively close. I like this move in this situation for a couple reasons. First, another run would change the game, putting N. Little Rock in a situation where they couldn't get the lead on a single swing. Also, the worst that happens is the pitcher inning is shortened and the pitcher doesn't have to wait much longer to close the game out. When I pitched (not professionally, granted) I never wanted a long inning at the plate with a lead heading into the top of the final inning.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Thursday Twin-bill

Game Notes
The Naturals bats seemed to wake up at times last night, as they were able to put up 4 runs in two innings in the first game Thursday night. Brian McFall's impressive bomb in the fourth seemed to jump-start the offense, at least for a time. The Nat's cruised to a 4-2 win in game one, as the bullpen looked solid once again.

After that three-run fourth, though, the Nats posted eight consecutive scoreless innings before attempting a comeback in the sixth inning of the second game. The Naturals' game two starting pitcher Blake Johnson struggled from the first pitch. Getting behind each of the first three batters he faced, Johnson struggled to find the zone consistently. Once he was behind, his mid-80s fast-balls weren't enough to get by the S-Cards' bats. He only walked two, but he'll need to get better command of his pitches to improve his results.

Strategy Note
A couple examples of how playing heads-up baseball might effect the outcome of the game.

In the third inning of the first game, the Naturals' Juan Richardson hit a fly-ball to right with one out and the bases loaded. The right fielder was faced with the choice of attempting to gun down (C) Adam Donachie (the tying run at the time) at the plate, or hold the other two runners by throwing to third. He chose to hold the runners. Could he have gotten Donachie? Maybe. But he probably made the right decision to throw to third, ensuring that the other two runners couldn't advance.

Another example, this time of either poor strategy or a mental error. In the bottom of the sixth with one out and the Naturals trailing 4-3, runners on first (McFall) and third (Lucas), Maddox at the plate, and one out. I'm not sure if this was a planned trick play, or if McFall was being overly aggressive (based on Poldberg's reaction, I'd guess the latter). It appeared that McFall was fooled by the old fake to third, throw to first (the move that never worked in H.S., but still gets tried all the time). Once McFall was caught in the run down, Lucas broke for home and appeared to score, but was called out.

In that situation, McFall should have been more aware that the run on third was crucial, and that there was no reason to be so aggressive. He also shouldn't have been fooled, as the Springfield pitcher had already attempted that move at least once previously. The odds of scoring with a runner on third and less than two outs (especially with Maddox, who runs well at the plate) are dramatically higher than scoring with a runner on second and two outs, and we needed to score at least one run to stay alive. Maddox then struck out to end the threat.

Big Picture
It appears that the Naturals might have finally gotten their big sticks locked-in. McFall had the bomb in the first game, then a sharp, run-scoring pinch-hit single in the sixth inning of game two. Kaaihue also laced a double to the left-center gap, and looks like he might get back in a groove. Maddox continues to struggle, and might take more time to adjust to AA pitching.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Rain, Rain, Go Away

The horrendous weather continues in NWA today, so the Naturals and Cardinals will have to play two tomorrow. Hopefully this rainout is what the Nats need to get their bats going. They'll play a doubleheader starting at 5:30, with the second game 30 minutes after the first.

I spoke with a member of the Naturals today, who told me that tonight's games might be shortened to seven innings, which would likely shave 30-45 minutes off of each game. I'd guess the second game will start somewhere between 8:15 and 8:30 if they are shortened. About 9:00 otherwise.

I don't know how deep Springfield's bullpen is, but let's hope that the Nats' deep staff of relief pitchers will be an advantage, as both teams will likely have to dig deeper into their 'pens for the second game.

First Post Excitement

Intro
OK, I haven't gotten all the kinks worked out yet, but it's time to really get started. The Naturals season is a little more than 12% over, and things aren't looking good so far, as they've delivered the worst record in the Texas League.

Game Notes
That being said, both of the last two games have given the fans something to get up about. Monday, fans at the 'Vest were treated to a scoreless tie into the bottom of the 8th as Julio Pimentel and Springfield's Garcia kept runners on the bases through 7 1/2.

The Naturals managed to scratch out a run in the 8th on a two-base error by Garcia, a Garcia wildpitch, and a ground-out to the catcher, and that was the difference in the game.

I wasn't able to make it out to the ballpark last night, but it looks like the game was an exciting one, though it did last way past my bedtime. Unfortunately, the Naturals couldn't hang on in extra frames, falling to the S-Cards 7-4.

Strategy Note
I heard some rumbles in the stands when Poldberg called for a steal of second with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th and a 1-0 lead. I know many in the stands don't follow the game, but I don't have any problem with this move for two reasons. First, we'd been running on this catcher all night, so the odds were in our favor. Second, in that situation it's far less likely to score a runner who is on first than second. From second with two outs, any hit will score the runner.

Prospect Watch
So far this season we've gotten the pitching that was promised. Carlos Rosa and Pimentel have been impressive, and I'll be surprised if they don't get called up for spot starts or as DL replacements (especially Rosa - 16K/3BB/20IP - 2.25ERA/0.95WHIP).

The biggest disappointment so far in this season has been 2B Marc Maddox. The highly regarded prospect is struggling (.217OB/.145BA/.164SLG), with 14 strike outs in 55 at bats while drawing only 4 walks and delivering zero bombs.

Big Picture
As a team the Naturals are hitting just over the Mendoza line, at .204, and will need to get their bats going if they hope to score some runs. In 18 games they've scored a TL low 54 runs (52 fewer than league-leader Frisco). The Naturals are slugging .287 so far.