Friday, May 23, 2008

Cortes' Return Home Start

Wednesday night, Arvest Ballpark was treated to the home return of Daniel Cortes. The start, Cortes' second since returning from the DL last week, was again solid. He got the win, going 5 innings, giving up 3 hits and allowing only one run while striking out five. He walked a few too many (4), but you'd have to expect his control to improve as he gets back into the groove. His season ERA now stands at an excellent 1.96.

Alumni Watch
Carlos Rosa made another start in AAA Omaha yesterday, and he must have been much sharper than he was in his debut. Rosa went seven complete, scattering seven hits, and allowing three runs. He only struck out 2, but one would have to expect the strikeouts to come with time.

Roman Colon then finished the game, going two innings for the save, allowing only one hit.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Richardson's Streak

I almost forgot to post about this. As a few people probably noticed based on the streak-tracker I had posted on the blog, Juan Richardson just had his 10 game hitting streak snapped when he went 0 for 3 on May 17. I thought I'd take a minute to look at what Richardson's numbers did during the streak, as he was impressive but not great.


During the streak Richardson hit .410 (16 for 39), raising his season average from .243 to .290 (22nd in the Texas League). That's good, but not great (for a streak of this length), afterall, Shane Robinson leads the Texas League in hitting with a .410 average for the whole season. Also, Richardson scored only 8 runs, drove in only 5 RBI and hit only one bomb during the streak.

He was hot, but not as hot as you might expect for a streak of that length. Afterall, in 6 of the 10 games in the streak, Richardson managed only a single hit.

Clark Gone - Travs Series

Clark Promoted
After struggling early, local favorite Cody Clark started wielding a hot bat just recently. Probably on the strength of his recently improved hitting, his always solid defense, and his experience, Clark was called up to replace Matt Tupman, who was promoted to the MLB team in John Buck's absence. It's likely that the call-up will be temporary, but Clark is making the most of the opportunity. In his first game with the O-Royals he went 2/3 with a triple and a home run. Maybe we won't see Cody Clark in NWA anymore this season.

Travs Series
It appears that the Naturals of the first 18 games of the season reappeared for the third installment of the Diamond Series. The Naturals were able to scratch out a single win during the 4 game set, the first road victory for either team so far in the season series (home team is now 11-1 in the series).

The Nats displayed statistics eerily similar to those we saw during the first 18 games of the season. They didn't hit for power (4 2b and 1 hr in 4 games), they struck out (26 K's), they didn't walk (10 BB). During the 4 games, they scored only 8 runs - not pretty.

Alumni Update
While Clark had a solid season debut with Omaha, the same cannot be said for Carlos Rosa. After being unhittable in AA, Rosa struggled in his first outing with the O-Royals. He went only 3 innings, allowing 8 hits and 5 earned runs. He did manage to strike out 4 and issued 0 walks, so there are a few good things to take away from the poor outing.

Devon Lowery has continued to impress in Omaha, though. He's thrown 12 1/3 innings in 6 appearances, posting a .73 ERA (he's still only allowed one run). and a .97 WHIP.

Like Rosa, Roman Colon hasn't had a good go of things in Omaha so far. He's allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work.

The Nats return
The Nats will be back in Arvest Ballpark Wednesday to begin a 6-game non-divisional homestand against Midland and Frisco. Wednesday will be Daniel Cortes' first home start since he went on the DL weeks ago, so Wednesday's game will be worth catching to see him go. He had a solid outing in his return against Tulsa, and will look to improve tomorrow.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Sometimes It Rains.

The Naturals have been a model of the classic turnaround so far this season. After starting off a dismal 5-13, the Nats had their April 23rd game against the Springfield Cardinals rained out. After the rainout, the Naturals have surged to a 21-18 record, going 16-5 over their last 21 games. Not impressed? Let's look a little deeper.

5-13 works out to a .277 winning percentage.
16-5 works out to a .762 winning percentage.

That's pretty astounding. Sure, teams lose and win, but to sustain 18 games losing like they were, then to sustain a .762 winning percentage for 21 games? That's remarkable, especially at a level where moves are done throughout the course of games with intentions other than to win the games.

What caused the dramatic turnaround? Over the first 18 games, the Nats scored a dreadful 54 runs (3/game). During the surge, though, they've scored 106 runs in 21 games (a respectable 5+/contest). Meanwhile, they're pitching has remained solid, allowing 4.11 games during the first 18, and dropping that to 3.76/game in the last 21.

So the offense has spurred the turnaround. Afterall, there was never anything wrong with the pitching - 4R/Gm is not bad. Has the offense been improved by more timely hitting? Yes, but it's also much simpler than that. Naturals hitters have been locked in since the rainout. I did the math.

Before the rainout (first 18 games) - .204
After the rainout (next 21 games) - .285

They've raised the team batting average 81 points. But that's not the only thing that's changed. Before the rainout, the Naturals were slugging a dismal .287 (note that the team batting average since 4/23 is .285). They were averaging 3 rbi/gm on the strength of 1 double/gm and .55hr/gm. I realize some of these aren't familiar stats, but use them for comparison.

Since the rainout, the Nats have slugged a robust .433 (.146 higher). They've driven in 4.48rbi/gm (nearly 1 1/2 more rbi/gm) on the strength of 1.4 doubles/gm and 1hr/gm. Basically, before the rain they were hitting one home run every other game. Since the rain they've been hitting bombs daily.

They've also improved their plate discipline. Before the rainout turnaround, the Nats were striking out 6.9 times per game and walking only 3.05 times per game. That's 2.25k/bb before the rainout - pretty terrible. Since the rainout they've cut the strikouts to 5.5/game and upped the walks to 4/gm - 1.38k/bb since the rainout.

It looks like this improved plate discipline has really made a big difference. The team batting average on balls in play has been 83 points higher after the rainout (.343) than it was prior to the rainout (.247).

So, they're just hitting better - they're putting more balls in play, getting more hits, more walks, fewer strikeouts, more extra base hits, and more timely hits, which is leading to more runs.

I'm reminded of a wise saying, though - "nothing very good or very bad lasts very long."

Monday, May 12, 2008

Rosa Promoted to AAA Omaha

The pitching drain continues here in NWA. Carlos Rosa, the Naturals ace, and Texas League ERA leader has been promoted to the Omaha Royals, a step away from the majors. Rosa is the third Natural pitcher to be promoted since May 1st, and it looks like the Royals pitching-stacked system might be ready to pay off for the big club.

Rosa, a 23-year-old Dominican was stellar in his starts for the Naturals. His exploits have been detailed on this blog already (hey, I was starting to develop a bit of a man-crush, I'll admit it) but let's take one more moment to look at his stats here, since we won't be seeing him anymore.

In 8 starts Rosa threw 45 innings (Nearly 5 2/3 ip per start). In those 45 innings he allowed a trifling 30 hits and 7 walks, for a WHIP of .82 and posted the aforementioned 1.20 ERA (allowed 6 ER). For my money, though, his k/bb ratio is his telling stat. 42/7 - insane. 6 strikeouts for every walk issued. I think he's going to be the real deal - time will tell.

As yet a replacement hasn't been announced - The Naturals' roster is down to 22, 2 below the maximum of 24, so we should see a player or two added sometime. There are several on the DL, though, so those guys might fill the roster spots.

40 Man MLB?

If you've looked at the Naturals' roster you've probably noticed that 4 players - Rosa, Pimentel, Sanchez, and Lisson are on the Royals 40-man roster. Many probably don't know what that means, though.

Most people who follow baseball are familiar with the 25 man roster for each MLB team. Only players on the 25 man roster are eligible to play in official MLB games throughout the season. What is the 40 man roster, though? It includes the 25 man roster up to 15 players in the minor leagues - but typically something less than that - and MLB players who are on the 15-day DL. The significance of a player being on the 40 man roster is that, after September 1 the MLB club can expand their roster to include players on the 40 man roster to play in official MLB games.

This means that players like Rosa and Pimentel will likely get a chance to move up to play in a few MLB games this season after the roster expansion in September (if not sooner, in Rosa's case). Typically teams that fall out of centention are much more likely to expand their rosters to 40 and let prospects get time in the big leagues. Teams in contention might add a few guys to lessen the wear on everyday players, but don't typically give minor leaguers significant playing time.

This is because teams must still maintain their 25 man roster, and cannot change that roster after Aug 31, unless a player is placed on the 60-day DL. In that event, a player from the 40 man roster, who plays the same position, can replace the injured player (who is out for the remainder of the season since 60 days after Sept. 1 is Oct. 31 and the World Series is over).

It might be fun to look at the players who are on the Royals 40 man roster, but not on their 25 man roster. Of course, it might not be fun. We'll only know once we've done it.

John Bale - 15 day DL
Ryan Braun - RHP - Omaha Royals
Kyle Davies - RHP - Omaha Royals
Luke Hudson - 15 day DL
Tyler Lumsden - LHP - Omaha Royals
Neal Musser - LHP - Omaha Royals
Julio Pimentel - RHP - NWA Naturals
Carlos Rosa - RHP - NWA Naturals
Matt Tupman - C - Omaha Royals
Mario Lisson - 3B - NWA Naturals
Angel Sanchez - SS - NWA NAturals
Ryan Shealy - 1B - Omaha Royals
Shane Costa - OF - Omaha Royals
Mitch Maier - OF - Omaha Royals

It'll be fun if/when some of these Nats get their chance in the big leagues. I'm hoping to make a few trips up to KC to catch some games this summer, and will definitely try to do so if Rosa or Pimentel get a chance to start for the big club.

Now a look at the Royals Top Ten Prospects according to Baseball America:

Mike Moustakas - SS - Burlington Bees
Daniel Cortes - RHP - NWA Naturals (DL)
Luke Hochevar - RHP - MLB 25 Man Roster
Blake Wood - RHP - Wilmington Blue Rocks
Danny Duffy - LHP - AZL Royals
Carlos Rosa - RHP - NWA Naturals
Julio Pimentel - RHP - NWA Naturals
Matt Mitchell - RHP - Burlington Bees
Yasuhiko Yabuta - RHP - MLB 25 Man Roster
Derrick Robinson - OF - Wilmington Blue Rocks

I don't know the protocol on when a player is no longer a prospect, but I suppose one should remove Yabuta to Hochevar from the list soon, if not now. If Moustakas lives up to his potential there's a clear opening for him in KC, as Pena is not getting it done (.160 BA right now). That could mean a midseason call-up for Moustakas, which would probably send Angel Sanchez to Omaha.

Update:
I meant to include this initially, but ran out of time. It's interesting to see how few of the top prospects are also on the 40 man roster. You can tell from this that there is a huge difference in the long-term potential for a player (at least for what scouts see in a player) and their current abilities. Guys on the 40 man roster are probably the guys the club feels are the most MLB ready right now, while prospects are the guys who are thought to have the greatest potential to have the largest impact someday. Heck, Moustakas isn't even on the 40-man roster, and he's (by all accounts) the top prospect in the KC system.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Another Promotion to Omaha

Colon Promotion
Roman Colon is the second Natural pitcher in as many weeks to be promoted to Omaha. Colon pitched fairly well while with the Naturals - 2-0/5.29, but he wasn't spectacular. One of the few Nats with MLB experience (he's played for Atlanta and Detroit), Colon might be headed up to the big leagues soon. Obviously, he would be the first former Natural to play in the big leagues.

Alumnus Prospect Watch
Former Nat Devon Lowery, promoted to AAA Omaha last week, is still dominating hitters. In three appearanced, Lowery has pitched 6 1/3 innings, and has allowed two hits while striking out 3, walking nobody and allowing zero earned runs.

It'll be nice to see one of these guys get a shot at the big club. Hard to tell whether the Royals will move either one of them up, but with a team that's struggling as much as the Royals do perennially, there's always room for effective pitchers.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

First Place

I wanted to go ahead and get this posted while it's still true. As of 2:40 today, the Naturals are alone in first place in the North Division. With their come-from-behind victory on the strength of home runs from Kaaihue, McFall, and local favorite Cody Clark the Nats topped the Drillers to complete another series sweep, their second consecutive sweep at the 'Vest.

This is the Naturals 8th consecutive home win and their 12th win in their last 16 games. It also marks the first time since opening day that the Naturals don't have a losing record. With a win tomorrow against Springfield, the Nats will be above .500 for the first time in franchise history.

The Naturals and the Cardinals have faced each other in two 4-game series so far this season, splitting each series 2-2. The sticks to keep an eye on for the Cards will be in the hands of OF Jon Jay (I realize there was also a John Jay who was the first Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. All indications are that this is not the same guy) and 3B Allen Craig. Craig has 4 bombs and has driven in 23 for the Cardinals, while Jay is hitting a respectable .330.

Former Arkansas Razorback Casey Rowlett should also see more action at the 'Vest this weekend. Also, former Razorback pitcher Jess Todd, who set Arkansas and SEC tournament records with 17 Ks in a tourney game last season has been promoted to AA and is scheduled to start on Wednesday. Todd made his professional debut at Advanced-A Palm Beach this season, and has apparently impressed the Cards front office enough to get the call up. I remember him well from his UA days. He has electric stuff.

Given the affiliation, the Razorback connections, and the Naturals' hot streak, I hope attendance will be up for this series.

Monday, May 5, 2008

Naturals keep up the winning ways

The Naturals are again tied for first place in the North Division at 14-16 (not bad after starting 4-12). It's a little difficult to get really excited about a first place club, though that's still lost more games than they've won. That is certainly not the case lately, though. The Naturals have now won 10 of their last 14 games and are legitimately hot. They're winning with pitching, including the arms or Pimentel and Rosa. They're also winning with hitting, including the power of Richardson, Kaaihue, and McFall as well as the bats of Sanchez and Duarte.

Streak
The Naturals are on quite a streak and appear to have made themselves right at home at the 'Vest. Sunday was the 6th consecutive win at home for the Naturals and they've won 8 of their last 10 at home. They'll have to continue the streak, and the hot play in general in the absence of their most effective relief pitcher Devon Lowery.

Prospect Watch
Lowery was promoted to AAA Omaha last week. While with the Naturals Lowery struck out 17 while walking only 5 in 13 innings of work. Lowery also posted a team best 0.69 ERA. Given his success with the Naturals, it seems likely he'll survive the jump to AAA. While ERA is a poor indicator of future success (at least in my estimation), his K/BB ratio of 3.4 and the fact that he hadn't allowed a single home run indicate potential to continue dominating hitters.

Strategy Note
With two runs in and nobody out in the third inning on Saturday Juan Richardson attempted an enigmatic steal of third base. He was easily thrown out by the Tulsa catcher, and what could have been a huge inning was stopped dead in its tracks as the Naturals failed to score again.

There's an old baseball saying that you never make the first or third out at third base. This is definitely a case where one should adhere to that rule. The Nat's had an opportunity to blow the game open, but instead ran themselves out of the inning. It's hard to imagine what Poldberg or Richardson thought would be gained by the steal, but it was idiotic.