Sometimes It Rains.

The Naturals have been a model of the classic turnaround so far this season. After starting off a dismal 5-13, the Nats had their April 23rd game against the Springfield Cardinals rained out. After the rainout, the Naturals have surged to a 21-18 record, going 16-5 over their last 21 games. Not impressed? Let's look a little deeper.

5-13 works out to a .277 winning percentage.
16-5 works out to a .762 winning percentage.

That's pretty astounding. Sure, teams lose and win, but to sustain 18 games losing like they were, then to sustain a .762 winning percentage for 21 games? That's remarkable, especially at a level where moves are done throughout the course of games with intentions other than to win the games.

What caused the dramatic turnaround? Over the first 18 games, the Nats scored a dreadful 54 runs (3/game). During the surge, though, they've scored 106 runs in 21 games (a respectable 5+/contest). Meanwhile, they're pitching has remained solid, allowing 4.11 games during the first 18, and dropping that to 3.76/game in the last 21.

So the offense has spurred the turnaround. Afterall, there was never anything wrong with the pitching - 4R/Gm is not bad. Has the offense been improved by more timely hitting? Yes, but it's also much simpler than that. Naturals hitters have been locked in since the rainout. I did the math.

Before the rainout (first 18 games) - .204
After the rainout (next 21 games) - .285

They've raised the team batting average 81 points. But that's not the only thing that's changed. Before the rainout, the Naturals were slugging a dismal .287 (note that the team batting average since 4/23 is .285). They were averaging 3 rbi/gm on the strength of 1 double/gm and .55hr/gm. I realize some of these aren't familiar stats, but use them for comparison.

Since the rainout, the Nats have slugged a robust .433 (.146 higher). They've driven in 4.48rbi/gm (nearly 1 1/2 more rbi/gm) on the strength of 1.4 doubles/gm and 1hr/gm. Basically, before the rain they were hitting one home run every other game. Since the rain they've been hitting bombs daily.

They've also improved their plate discipline. Before the rainout turnaround, the Nats were striking out 6.9 times per game and walking only 3.05 times per game. That's 2.25k/bb before the rainout - pretty terrible. Since the rainout they've cut the strikouts to 5.5/game and upped the walks to 4/gm - 1.38k/bb since the rainout.

It looks like this improved plate discipline has really made a big difference. The team batting average on balls in play has been 83 points higher after the rainout (.343) than it was prior to the rainout (.247).

So, they're just hitting better - they're putting more balls in play, getting more hits, more walks, fewer strikeouts, more extra base hits, and more timely hits, which is leading to more runs.

I'm reminded of a wise saying, though - "nothing very good or very bad lasts very long."