Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Withdrawal

After spending a good portion of the last week at the 'Vest watching the Naturals win a bunch of games, it's weird having to suddenly be stuck with recaps and radio broadcasts. For one, I find it hard to justify listening to the entire broadcast, since I get to see them so often. Being WAY out of market for my MLB franchise forces me to listen to games on XM if I want to get any live action, so I'm not really doing the radio thing for the Nats.

That being the case, I have to settle for getting recaps and box scores, which are admittedly limited. It's funny how you get used to the sounds and the comfort of the ballpark when you get in the habit of being there most days. But baseball, too, can play hard to get.

Looking over the box score for last night, I did notice that Jose Duarte managed to get a base hit to extend his hitting streak to five games, making it worth talking about. Duarte has increased his average .061 points from .156 to a nearly respectable .217. During the streak, Duarte is hitting .421 (8/19).

Rosa should make another start tonight. He's been dominant so far, and will hopefully be able to pitch the Nats back into the win column. Who's pitching for the Cardinals? DKDC (don't know, dont care).

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Sweep!

I love hearing about every Naturals first. Last week we had the first rainout, first double-header, first 7 inning game in franchise history, and won back-to-back games for the first time. This week the Naturals won their first series, then completed the franchise's first series sweep.

Are the Naturals the best baseball team on the planet? Almost certainly. Look at these batting averages. Aside from Geraldo Valentin and Juan Richardson, not a soul is hitting above .250. Two regular starters, Marc Maddox and Angel Sanchez, are hitting below .190. In fact, Maddox has more strikeouts (17) than he has hits and walks combined (15).

Mario Lisson has caught fire recently, though. After going 0-4 on April 20 he's hit .321 raising his season average from .153 to .207. Lisson has an active 5-game hitting streak, and will look to continue his (relatively) hot hitting in Springfield. During the streak he's hitting .368.

Springfield is currently in first place one game ahead of both Tulsa and the Naturals, so a win tonight would put the Naturals into a tie for first place in the North at 11-14. The Cardinals are also playing good baseball. After the series split in Springdale, the Cardinals matched the Naturals' pace by sweeping Tulsa in 4 games.

If the Naturals are going to have a chance at winning the series, they'll need Lisson, McFall, and Kaaihue to continue to improve, and they'll need solid starting performances from Rosa, Pimentel, and Hardy.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Get out the Brooms

Series Update
The Naturals, having already secured their first series victory will go for another franchise first - a series sweep. The fact that it might come from the Travelers could make it that much sweeter if the Naturals can pull it off. Add to that the fact that the Naturals will move into a tie for second place with a win tonight, and there is plenty of reason to bring your broom to the 'Vest to cheer them on.

Attendance Lagging
Attendance has been disappointing early this season (about 1,000/game less than DSP last year). Edelstein blames the weather, but there has to be more to it than the weather. The home opener was, by all accounts, a fiasco. Ridiculous lines for food and horrendous traffic didn't make the nearly 8,000 fans eager to return. Sure, the weather has been bad - temperatures were in the 40s for Friday and Saturday's games - but people will show up for a good product, regardless of the weather. In MiLB simply winning doesn't make for a good product. They've got to ensure that people have fun at the park, regardless of the outcome of the games.

Here are a few suggestions from a guy whose been to most of the games played at the 'Vest so far:
1. Rethink concessions: Right now the concessions aren't terrible, but they aren't memorable. If someone is going to pay $5 for a hamburger they want something better than what they'd get from a college cafeteria.
2. Beer Selection: Bud Light, Miller Lite, and Shiner Bock. That's it? Really? At Kauffman they've got several varieties of Boulevard brews. You'd think that part of the logic in bringing a team to NWA was to try to link fans with the nearest MLB franchise to expand the fan base. Why not tie in to some of the things offered at Kauffman to do that?
3. Infrastructure: Obviously it'll take time to beef up the infrastructure, but a show of action might go a long way. They need to make 56th two lanes, and push Watkins through to 112. It'll take time to complete, but they need to show people that it's going to happen. Otherwise, people won't come back.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

NWA Comes through

Game Notes
Behind the stellar arm of Carlos Rosa, the Naturals finally edged a win in the Car-Mart Cup series with the Travelers. After dropping all 4 games against the cross-state rival in North Little Rock last weekend, the Naturals managed to split 4 with Springfield and have now won 3 of their last 5 (hey, our expectations are pretty low).

I watched the game from the Bud Light Bullpen Cafe beyond the left-field fence at a MANA fundraising event. It's fun to get a completely different angle on the game, and to have such a spectacular view of the stadium (all-you-can-eat burgers and hot dogs were pretty sweet, too). Don't know that I'd want to be out there all the time though, as the options are to stand or sit on picnic table benches, but it's a nice change of pace.

Prospect Watch
Rosa is amazing. He worked a no-hitter into the sixth and struck out 9 in eight shut-out innings. His numbers so far this season? 25IP/1.61E.R.A./25K/5BB/.79WHIP. I'll be pretty surprised if he's here all season, so anyone who wants to see a guy on the way up should get to the 'Vest soon.

Strategy Note
Really quick one - in the bottom of the ninth with a 3-run lead and 1 out, the Naturals' Kila Kaaihue attempted to stretch a single into a double. It looked pretty clear that he wasn't going to make it, though the play was relatively close. I like this move in this situation for a couple reasons. First, another run would change the game, putting N. Little Rock in a situation where they couldn't get the lead on a single swing. Also, the worst that happens is the pitcher inning is shortened and the pitcher doesn't have to wait much longer to close the game out. When I pitched (not professionally, granted) I never wanted a long inning at the plate with a lead heading into the top of the final inning.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Thursday Twin-bill

Game Notes
The Naturals bats seemed to wake up at times last night, as they were able to put up 4 runs in two innings in the first game Thursday night. Brian McFall's impressive bomb in the fourth seemed to jump-start the offense, at least for a time. The Nat's cruised to a 4-2 win in game one, as the bullpen looked solid once again.

After that three-run fourth, though, the Nats posted eight consecutive scoreless innings before attempting a comeback in the sixth inning of the second game. The Naturals' game two starting pitcher Blake Johnson struggled from the first pitch. Getting behind each of the first three batters he faced, Johnson struggled to find the zone consistently. Once he was behind, his mid-80s fast-balls weren't enough to get by the S-Cards' bats. He only walked two, but he'll need to get better command of his pitches to improve his results.

Strategy Note
A couple examples of how playing heads-up baseball might effect the outcome of the game.

In the third inning of the first game, the Naturals' Juan Richardson hit a fly-ball to right with one out and the bases loaded. The right fielder was faced with the choice of attempting to gun down (C) Adam Donachie (the tying run at the time) at the plate, or hold the other two runners by throwing to third. He chose to hold the runners. Could he have gotten Donachie? Maybe. But he probably made the right decision to throw to third, ensuring that the other two runners couldn't advance.

Another example, this time of either poor strategy or a mental error. In the bottom of the sixth with one out and the Naturals trailing 4-3, runners on first (McFall) and third (Lucas), Maddox at the plate, and one out. I'm not sure if this was a planned trick play, or if McFall was being overly aggressive (based on Poldberg's reaction, I'd guess the latter). It appeared that McFall was fooled by the old fake to third, throw to first (the move that never worked in H.S., but still gets tried all the time). Once McFall was caught in the run down, Lucas broke for home and appeared to score, but was called out.

In that situation, McFall should have been more aware that the run on third was crucial, and that there was no reason to be so aggressive. He also shouldn't have been fooled, as the Springfield pitcher had already attempted that move at least once previously. The odds of scoring with a runner on third and less than two outs (especially with Maddox, who runs well at the plate) are dramatically higher than scoring with a runner on second and two outs, and we needed to score at least one run to stay alive. Maddox then struck out to end the threat.

Big Picture
It appears that the Naturals might have finally gotten their big sticks locked-in. McFall had the bomb in the first game, then a sharp, run-scoring pinch-hit single in the sixth inning of game two. Kaaihue also laced a double to the left-center gap, and looks like he might get back in a groove. Maddox continues to struggle, and might take more time to adjust to AA pitching.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Rain, Rain, Go Away

The horrendous weather continues in NWA today, so the Naturals and Cardinals will have to play two tomorrow. Hopefully this rainout is what the Nats need to get their bats going. They'll play a doubleheader starting at 5:30, with the second game 30 minutes after the first.

I spoke with a member of the Naturals today, who told me that tonight's games might be shortened to seven innings, which would likely shave 30-45 minutes off of each game. I'd guess the second game will start somewhere between 8:15 and 8:30 if they are shortened. About 9:00 otherwise.

I don't know how deep Springfield's bullpen is, but let's hope that the Nats' deep staff of relief pitchers will be an advantage, as both teams will likely have to dig deeper into their 'pens for the second game.

First Post Excitement

Intro
OK, I haven't gotten all the kinks worked out yet, but it's time to really get started. The Naturals season is a little more than 12% over, and things aren't looking good so far, as they've delivered the worst record in the Texas League.

Game Notes
That being said, both of the last two games have given the fans something to get up about. Monday, fans at the 'Vest were treated to a scoreless tie into the bottom of the 8th as Julio Pimentel and Springfield's Garcia kept runners on the bases through 7 1/2.

The Naturals managed to scratch out a run in the 8th on a two-base error by Garcia, a Garcia wildpitch, and a ground-out to the catcher, and that was the difference in the game.

I wasn't able to make it out to the ballpark last night, but it looks like the game was an exciting one, though it did last way past my bedtime. Unfortunately, the Naturals couldn't hang on in extra frames, falling to the S-Cards 7-4.

Strategy Note
I heard some rumbles in the stands when Poldberg called for a steal of second with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th and a 1-0 lead. I know many in the stands don't follow the game, but I don't have any problem with this move for two reasons. First, we'd been running on this catcher all night, so the odds were in our favor. Second, in that situation it's far less likely to score a runner who is on first than second. From second with two outs, any hit will score the runner.

Prospect Watch
So far this season we've gotten the pitching that was promised. Carlos Rosa and Pimentel have been impressive, and I'll be surprised if they don't get called up for spot starts or as DL replacements (especially Rosa - 16K/3BB/20IP - 2.25ERA/0.95WHIP).

The biggest disappointment so far in this season has been 2B Marc Maddox. The highly regarded prospect is struggling (.217OB/.145BA/.164SLG), with 14 strike outs in 55 at bats while drawing only 4 walks and delivering zero bombs.

Big Picture
As a team the Naturals are hitting just over the Mendoza line, at .204, and will need to get their bats going if they hope to score some runs. In 18 games they've scored a TL low 54 runs (52 fewer than league-leader Frisco). The Naturals are slugging .287 so far.